SCENARIOS FOR NEW “GOVERNMENT” IN THE NORTH SIDE AND THE REORGANIZATION OF T / C RIGHT

SCENARIOS FOR NEW “GOVERNMENT” IN THE NORTH SIDE AND THE REORGANIZATION OF T / C RIGHT
Nikos Stelgia
Kathimerini 5/9/2010

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The new economic program of Turkey for the Turkish Cypriot community marks a significant change in T / C political field: the reorganization of the T / C right. According to the latest information from the other side of the green line, operator of this change is the National Unity Party (NUP). Last week the executive officer of the party made clear its position on strengthening the foundation of the party authorizing the leader of the party to open negotiations with the Turkish Cypriot players right.

At a time when Ankara demands to reduce "public expenditure" and the privatization in order to facilitate the promotion of specific economic measures, the NUP seeks to strengthen the position of 'government' of minority Irsen Küçük. At the moment, "the government" of Küçük is supported by 24 "members" of the party. In the Turkish Cypriot side, the contacts of mr. Küçük with political parties and individuals have brought to the fore various scenarios that involve the next day in the Turkish Cypriot political arena. The preferred scenario is to strengthen the "government" of NUP with the participation of the Party of Freedom and Reform (FPC) of Turgay Avci, or the integration of former "members" of the Democratic Party of Serdar Denktash.

First Scenario: Strengthening the "government" of the NUP with the support of former members of the Democratic Party

The T / C analysts agree that the above scenario may lead to the strengthening of the Turkish Cypriot right. Under this scenario, the former "members" of the Democratic Party and close associates of Denktash Mehmet Tancer and Ertugrul hatipoglu are ready to join the NUP. In this way the number of "seats" of the party will rise to 26 and NUP will provide back a majority in parliament.

Turkish Cypriot journalistic circles indicate that the last time the NUP has approached another former "member" of the Democratic Party, the Ejder Aslanbaba. The party leadership wants to see ,r. Aslanbaba follow the path that will set two of his colleagues, if the NUP chooses to strengthen its base to transferring members of the Democratic Party. Nevertheless it should be noted that Mr. Aslanbaba still has to distance himself from the NUP. Indeed, in recent days in the Turkish Cypriot press appeared rumors according to which mr. Aslababa may create a new party.

The integration of the former "members" of the Democratic Party in the NUP is strongly supported by the executives of the party who want to maintain distances from the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) in Turkey. This proportion of managers believes that Turgay Avci and his companions followed with blind obedience the commands of the Turkish government. In fact, this portion of executives shares the distrust of Turkey's opposition to all initiatives of the AKP. It is worth noting that a few days ago, in a public place, the "Minister of Economy" Ersin Tatar supported the inclusion of former members of the Democratic Party in the NUP and excluded cooperation with the FPC.

Second Scenario: cohabitation

For its part, the the Turgay Avci΄s Freedom and Reform Party, which was founded with the support of the AKP in 2006, has made clear its willingness to cooperate with the NUP. According to information of the 'K', mr. Avci has set an important condition in terms of cooperation with the NUP: FRP request the Foreign Ministry. Faced with this request, several members of NUP have expressed strong concerns.

While the FRP has made clear its intention to cooperate with NUP, the same willingness has been expressed by the leadership of the Social Democratic Party, despite serious objections from the base of the party. It should be noted that strains of NUP, which maintain distances from the AKP and the FRP, are particularly favorable to the party's possible cooperation with their Turkish Cypriot Social Democrats.

Finally, it should be noted that the T / C analysts stress that the "cohabitation" will happen if no agreement is reached NUP - former members of the Democratic Party.

Third Scenario: Premature 'elections'

The possibility of early "elections" is presented by the Turkish Cypriot analysts as the third choice of the leadership of the NUP. Based on the fact that a large portion of Turkish Cypriot society now stresses the question of impairment of the whole system, the party gives priority to the above two scenarios. Furthermore, many members of the NUP emphasize that the Turkish Cypriot economy has not withstand fourth election in a half year period.


Reorganization right according to the priorities of Ankara

Integration of former partners of Mr Denktas in NUP or "cohabitation" NUP – FRP / Social Democrats ... Whatever the scenario will be the next day the sure explanation is that the Turkish Cypriot right tries to reconstruct its composition according to the new requirements of the new period. The economic priorities of Ankara for the Turkish Cypriot community, and alternative scenarios for the political future of Turkish Cypriots, are crucial in regard to this reconstruction. This is a common line for the analysts in the other side of the line…